Loudoun County Real Estate Market 2026: What to Expect This Year

National Real Estate Trends for 2026

Will Mortgage Rates Drop in 2026?

Mortgage rates are expected to decline gradually throughout 2026, with most forecasters predicting the 30-year fixed rate will average around 6.3% for the year, down from the 2025 average of 6.6%. Realtor.com expects rates to settle in the low-6% range as the Federal Reserve continues to adjust monetary policy in response to slowing economic growth.

While rates may occasionally dip below 6%, they are unlikely to stay there for extended periods due to persistent inflation concerns and federal borrowing. This represents a meaningful improvement from the 6.8% rates many buyers faced during spring 2025, which should help bring more qualified buyers into the market.​

How Much Will Home Prices Increase?

Home prices are projected to rise modestly in 2026, with most national forecasts ranging from 1% to 4% appreciation. Realtor.com predicts a 2.2% increase for the typical home sold, while Redfin expects just 1% growth due to continued affordability constraints. The National Association of Realtors takes a more optimistic view, forecasting 4% price growth supported by steady job gains and persistent supply shortages.

An important note is that inflation is expected to outpace these nominal price gains, meaning real (inflation-adjusted) home prices will decline slightly for a second consecutive year, which gradually improves affordability even if it doesn’t feel dramatic.​

Are Home Sales Expected to Increase?

Forecasts for home sales vary widely depending on economic assumptions, but all point to growth. The National Association of Realtors predicts the most optimistic scenario with a 14% increase in existing home sales, driven by pent-up demand and improving affordability. More conservative estimates from Realtor.com project a 1.7% rise to approximately 4.13 million sales, while Redfin expects 3% growth.

The variation in predictions reflects uncertainty about the labor market and whether the economy will experience a soft landing or face additional headwinds. Regardless of which forecast proves accurate, 2026 represents a turning point after several years of near-record-low sales activity.​

Will Housing Affordability Improve?

Affordability is set to improve modestly in 2026 as multiple factors align in buyers’ favor. For the first time since the Great Recession era, wage growth is expected to outpace home price appreciation for a sustained period. Realtor.com forecasts that the typical monthly payment to buy the median-priced home will fall 1.3% year over year, marking the first decline in average annual payments since 2020. The monthly payment as a share of median income is expected to slip to 29.3%, falling below the 30% affordability threshold for the first time since 2022.

While these improvements are modest, they represent an important shift toward better conditions for homebuyers who have been sidelined by high costs.​

What About Housing Inventory?

For-sale inventory will continue its recovery in 2026, with Realtor.com projecting an 8.9% increase in active listings, marking a third consecutive year of gains. However, the pace of improvement has slowed as the market edges closer to pre-pandemic norms. By year’s end, nationwide inventory levels are expected to remain roughly 12% below pre-2020 averages, an improvement from the 19% gap in 2025.

The national housing market will remain in balanced territory in 2026, averaging 4.6 months of supply across the year. This continued inventory growth, combined with more modest sales increases, is expected to shift negotiating power subtly toward buyers.